A two-speed nuclear world?

With the news that E.ON and RWE have pulled out of plans to build new nuclear plants in the UK, here is an article published in the August 2011 edition of The Energy Industry Times.

The Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant accident has accelerated a trend towards a two-speed nuclear world. Photo: Reuters/Kim Kyung-Hoon

There is a general consensus that new nuclear build has been delayed rather than derailed by the Fukushima crisis in Japan. But Fukushima may have accelerated a trend already present before the accident – a two-speed nuclear world split into liberalised and state-directed power markets.

This year is shaping up to be an annus horribilis for the nuclear power industry. The accident at the Fukushima Daiichi plant in eastern Japan, the second worst in history, is still yet to be under full control, leaving plant owner Tokyo Electric Power teetering on the edge of bankruptcy.

Since the massive tsunami struck the crippled Fukushima facility on March 11, the United States, Italy, Switzerland, Egypt and Thailand have postponed or cancelled new build projects, while Germany has seemingly abandoned nuclear power forever. In total, 37 reactors have been axed or put on hold since the crisis.

In Europe, the nuclear industry has taken a succession of blows. Germany will close all 17 of her nuclear plants by 2022. Switzerland has banned the construction of new reactors, while Italians overwhelmingly voted against a return to nuclear power in a national referendum. Of the 55 per cent of citizens who participated in the plebiscite, a crushing 94 per cent voted against the construction of new plants.

Most European nations, however, are still pursuing nuclear power. There is particularly strong interest in Central and Eastern Europe, with Poland, the Czech Republic and Lithuania keen to reduce their dependence on Russian natural gas, while the UK and France are pressing on with renewing their aging fleets.

Crucially, the European Commission has stood by nuclear power, despite recent actions by certain national governments. Marc Deffrennes, nuclear officer at the European Commission DG RTD, told The Energy Industry Times: “The Commission has not become more anti-nuclear since Fukushima. The Commission’s 2050 Low Carbon Roadmap envisages a very high penetration of renewables, but that will require a ‘super-smart grid’ and a high level of energy storage capacity, and this will have an impact on affordability. It is important to keep open the nuclear option in order to stabilize costs, as well as provide security of supply.”

The Commission’s initiative to check the safety of nuclear power plants in extreme circumstances, the so-called stress tests, are well underway. The tests are being conducted on 196 reactors in the EU plus Switzerland, Armenia, Belarus, Croatia, Russia, Turkey and Ukraine. The tests focus on the aspects of plant safety highlighted by Fukushima: natural events like earthquakes and floods, as well as loss of safety functions and severe accident management following any kind of initiating event. The operators have to explain their means to maintain control of reactivity, fuel cooling, and confinement of radioactivity after such an event.

Plant operators will file final reports to national regulators by 31 October, with the regulators updating the Commission by 15 September before making their final reports by 31 December. It seems certain that some reactors will close following the stress tests; Belgium’s energy minister Paul Magnette, for example, said that any unit which fails the tests will be shut down. According to Greenpeace, the older units at Belgium’s Doel nuclear plant, just five miles from Antwerp, are at risk of failing the tests.

Public opinion may take another dip when the results of the stress tests are announced, but Malcolm Grimston, Associate Fellow (energy policy) at British think-tank Chatham House believes that the importance of public perception about nuclear has been overblown. “Nuclear doesn’t have to be popular to get on,” he said. “It hasn’t stopped bankers! Fukushima, rightly, should change people’s views about nuclear because we should learn lessons from it, but I don’t see a massive swell of public opinion against it.”

Financing nuclear is a headache

What matters more to the development of new build nuclear is finance. Allan Baker, global head of power at French banking group Societe Generale, says Fukushima has made an already difficult job even tougher for the financial community, and expects a number of new build projects to be delayed. “Even before Fukushima it was clear that there isn’t enough liquidity to finance these projects,” said Baker.

“We have found it incredibly difficult to mobilize capital for an industry which is seen as very expensive and, to be blunt, non-competitive in a competitive electricity market. No financial institution is willing to take the risk on cash flows over 20-25 years without visible government support for the nuclear industry.

“Banks are also not keen on the construction, completion and cost over-run risks. Sponsors will need certainty over completion and cost over-run guarantees and European utilities don’t necessarily have the balance sheets to take on those risks without the credit rating agencies downgrading them.

“It’s not the costs of nuclear per se, but the uncertainty of costs, which is the killer for financial institutions. If you’re building something which costs $10 billion and there is a 20 per cent cost over-run, then there’s another $2 billion to find. Where does that come from? Does it come from the sponsors or additional debt? And will it be recovered soon, or over the entire lifetime of the plant?”

Professor Stephen Thomas, Director of Research at the UK’s University of Greenwich’s Business School, believes the writing is on the wall for nuclear power in Europe. “Fukushima could be the final straw for light water reactors (LWRs),” he told The Energy Industry Times. “After 60 years of development, real costs have only ever gone one way. Has any other technology had similar experience and still been pursued? Economic LWRs that can survive loss-of-coolant and loss-of-power accidents are an impossible dream.

“The promise of simpler, safer and cheap nuclear power at $1000/kW was either self-delusion or deception. Most recent cost estimates are more than $6000/kW. The future for nuclear power is going to be outside Europe. There will be very few orders in Western Europe and the US. Financing will be geared along national lines; Team Russia, Team Korea, Team Japan, Team France, perhaps Team China in the future. They will sell reactors as a package with financing included.”

Growth in state-run power sectors

In its recent report entitled, ‘The future of nuclear energy: One step back, two steps forward’, the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) says the overriding global trend for nuclear power over the next decade will be one of growth, despite recent events.

The EIU has revised down its forecasts for capacity additions in the top ten nuclear nations – USA, France, Japan, Russia, Germany, South Korea, Ukraine, Canada, UK and China – but by 2020 it still expects a 27 per cent rise in these nations to 405 GW, compared to 2010. However, the bulk of this new capacity will be built in state-directed economies like China and Russia where financing of nuclear is of much less of an issue. China’s nuclear capacity will rise by a staggering 527 per cent to 53 GW by 2020; while Russia will see an 81 per cent increase to 18.3 GW.

In the USA, France, Japan, Germany, Canada and the UK, new nuclear capacity will be profoundly slower, reports the EIU. Japan’s nuclear output is expected to fall by 5 per cent, Germany’s by 56 per cent, while the USA and France will witness modest growth of 8 per cent and 5 per cent respectively.

In liberalised power markets, where quick-to-build, relatively low cost CCGTs make far more financial sense, gas will be the clear winner from any slowdown in nuclear build-out, not least because the recent shale gas boom in the US has eased geopolitical concerns about the future sources of natural gas. Plenty of new build coal is the pipeline, not least in Germany, but plant investment decisions made in the medium term are less likely to include coal since Fukushima, according to Point Carbon.

The carbon market analysts say that the German nuclear phase-out will push up the price of carbon permits within the European Union’s emissions trading scheme by about €5 a tonne, leading to a greater switch to gas from coal, particularly in the UK, Italy and Spain. Renewables will also accelerate due to the phase-out, it said.

According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), nuclear power currently accounts for 14 per cent of global power generation. Prior to Fukushima, the IEA forecast 360 GW of nuclear new build, in addition to the existing installed base 390 GW. Following the accident, the IEA has halved the projection for new capacity to 180 GW and expects nuclear power to account for just 10 per cent of the global mix by 2035.

Most of the new capacity will come outside Europe, like in the Middle East where Abu Dhabi is pressing on with its new build programme. Paige Crewson, Special Counsel for Global Projects at Baker Botts LLP’s Abu Dhabi office, said: “Progress in the Middle East hasn’t even really slowed.  The UAE programme is still on schedule for first operation in 2017 and Saudi Arabia has just entered into preliminary arrangements.

“The biggest impact of Fukushima is likely to be international changes to safety standards which will be a design (and licensing of design) issue, rather than a project management one.  If new standards come online before Middle Eastern reactors, they will be expected to comply. The key drivers behind new build – diversifying local economies, carbon reduction, profitability of fossil fuel exports, and increased energy demands from a booming population – haven’t changed.”

Pipe dreams? Carbon capture ready and retrofitting gas-fired power plants

Alstom built the 30 MW oxycombustion steam generator system for the Schwarze Pumpe plant Brandenburg, Germany. Source: Vattenfall

The UK’s Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC) places a mandatory requirement on gas-fired power plants to be built ‘carbon capture ready’ so they can be retrofitted at a later stage. Tim Probert speaks to plant developer Intergen, carbon capture OEM Alstom, engineering group Foster Wheeler and the Crown Estate to find what CCR entails, and whether ‘ready’ will ever become ‘retrofit’. This article was published in the November/December 2011 issue of Gas Turbine World magazine.

The UK likes to think it is a world leader in carbon capture technology. To demonstrate its credentials the Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC) launched in May 2007 a £1 billion ($1.6 billion) carbon capture and storage (CCS) competition to build a utility-scale, full-chain demonstration project, with the winner expected to be announced a year later. Nearly five years on, the competition remains open and the money remains unspent.

On 19 October, DECC pulled the plug on Scottish Power’s project to retrofit a 300 MW unit at the 2400 MW Longannet coal-fired plant in Fife. The official reason for the withdrawal of support for the project was a technical problem with the plan to transport CO2 from the flue at Longannet via a 280km converted natural gas pipeline to the St Fergus gas terminal in Aberdeenshire and then a further 100km to Royal Dutch Shell’s Goldeneye gas platform in the North Sea.

The competition rumbles on and the new favourite is not a coal-fired plant, but a gas-fired plant. British Energy Secretary Chris Huhne MP says SSE’s proposal to retrofit a 385 MW CCGT unit with post-combustion CCS at its 1180 MW Peterhead power plant would be achievable within the £1billion budget and a decision is expected in 2012.

UK gas-fired plants must be carbon capture ready

The UK is pinning its hopes on CCS because it is a vital cog in DECC’s plans to “largely decarbonize” the power sector by 2030 as part of the 2008 Climate Change Act’s legally binding target of an overall 80 per cent national cut in carbon emissions by 2050. As of 23 April 2009, all combustion plants with an electrical generating capacity at or over 300 MW must be ‘carbon capture ready’ (CCR).

Gas plants are no exception. In order to satisfy DECC and gain Section 36 planning consent, developers must ensure sufficient space is available on or near the site to accommodate carbon capture equipment in the future; demonstrate the technical feasibility of retrofitting their chosen carbon capture technology; identify a suitable area of deep geological storage offshore (onshore CO2 storage is currently prohibited) and demonstrate the technical feasibility of transporting the captured CO2 to the proposed storage site.

One such developer is InterGen, which gained Section 36 consent for the 900 MW Spalding Energy Centre in Lincolnshire in November 2010 and the 900 MW Gateway Energy Centre in Essex in August 2011. Is CCR merely an inconvenient box-ticking exercise to gain planning consent?

“Absolutely not,” says Peter Lo, Gateway Energy Centre project manager. “InterGen supports fully the aim of achieving a low-carbon economy and a technically proven and economically viable carbon capture solution is an important part of the low-carbon future of the UK.”

Lo says the feasibility studies for the Spalding and Gateway projects are based on post-combustion carbon capture technology using a chemical absorption method using amine solvents as it believes this is the best currently available technology suitable for scaling up to a size suitable for CCGTs. However, it does not expect to retrofit its CCGT plants until well into the next decade.

“Given the status of the technology and the demonstration projects and the advancements in such still needed, we consider that CCS could be retrofitted after 2025,” he says. In the meantime, new gas-fired plants like Spalding and Gateway will continue to be built ready for the day when the plant owners deem CCS to be economically viable.

What exactly is carbon capture ready?

There is a public perception that CCR is merely having a few spare acres of land. Not so, says Michael Ladwig, French carbon capture equipment OEM Alstom’s director of gas turbine product management.

“CCR is not just a patch of grass,” he says. “It’s a product we offer with all new gas turbine-based power plants, devised as a result of technical and economic research on potential problems arising from retrofits.

“It makes economic sense to make some technical changes to the CCGT plant to make it capture ready. One of the changes needed for CCR is a flue gas stack opening for the connection of the capture plant, covered initially with a cover plate. It might be wise to include that at the beginning.

“A carbon capture retrofit would generate some hot steam back into the condenser and this has to be fed into the water-steam cycle of the CCGT. Our analysis has shown that it would be highly cost-effective to install a baffle plate on the condenser from day one rather than be installed during the retrofit.

“The baffle plate would comprise less than 1 per cent of the cost of a combined cycle power plant and would not affect the performance of the power plant.” Upon completion of a new Alstom CCR gas-fired plant the plant owner receives a report to be sent to the authorities verifying that all components have been checked and that the plant is CCR.

Retrofitting gas-fired plants with CCS

A CCS retrofit requires the installation significant equipment such as CO2 absorption vessels, CO2 stripper column and a CO2 compressor. “We do not yet know how long it will take to construct the capture units and the associated building, as we have not yet built a full-scale capture unit, but I would expect it to take anywhere between 12 to 24 months from start to finish,” says Philippe Paelinck, Alstom’s director of CO2 business development.

“We would also have to tie in a connection to bring steam to the stripper column, and that’s where we might have to shut down the plant. I believe that this can be done during a scheduled maintenance period, probably a two-to-three week regular maintenance timeframe. We have not yet tested that but we think it’s realistic.

“As well as the space for the capture plant, there is also space reserved in the switchyard for additional transformers. There will be some downtime when you make those connections.”

While there are no changes necessary to the heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) itself, a CCS unit will cause an increase in the back pressure of the water-steam cycle. Alstom will return the steam from the plant and extract the steam from the steam turbine crossover pipe, which connects the CCS plant to the combined-cycle plant. This would need around 35 days of plant downtime to install, but the company says it could be done as part of a regular hot gas parts inspection process as not to further increase downtime.

Post-combustion CCS courtesy Vattenfall

Mitigating CCS efficiency penalties

It is well known that there is a heavy energy penalty imposed from the carbon capture process. Most of the penalty arises from supplying steam supplied to the CO2 stripper column and from the extra electricity needed to power the CO2 compressor, which pressurizes it to 100 bar.

“On a gas plant we expect a 10 to 15 per cent efficiency penalty in absolute terms, translating to an overall efficiency loss of 6-8 points for a 60 per cent efficient CCGT,” says Paelinck. To reduce the efficiency penalty Alstom is contemplating recycling parts of the flue gas to the inlet of the turbine to enrich the CO2 in the flue gas.

“We think it could have an impact on the capex to reduce the size of the required equipment, but maybe not so much the efficiency. The efficiency depends on the quantity of CO2 per megawatt needed to be removed and so there is little we can do to reduce that. The only option is to use better quality solvents, which could improve efficiency by a percentage point or two. It will be very difficult to reduce the efficiency penalty further with first-generation carbon capture technologies.”

Foster Wheeler trying to find efficiency mitigation solutions

Foster Wheeler has conducted a number of early project phase exercises looking at the impact of carbon capture on CCGT plant efficiency. A typical amine solvent carbon capture plant with CO2 dehydration and compression units may have more of an impact on efficiency than Alstom’s research suggests, according to Tim Bullen, Foster Wheeler’s CCS manager.

“We see a nine percentage point drop to around 51 per cent efficiency for a 60 per cent efficient CCGT operating at full load, depending on the CO2 capture rate and the discharge pressure for compression,” he says.

Foster Wheeler’s findings are based on performance simulations using in-house and public domain gas turbine performance and a generic MEA-based amine system, not on a particular proprietary licensed technology. “Whether you take Alstom’s solvent, Aker’s solvent or Mitsubishi’s KS1 solvent, they all have some slight differences in performance, but from what we’ve seen there is not a dramatic change.”

Bullen says the main contributor to the net reduction in power output results from the loss of steam turbine output, which is due to the steam extraction for the reboiler within the capture unit and the power required for CO2 compression, either from direct electric power or from steam. There are also further demands from smaller units like the gas blower, additional cooling loads and pumping the solvent.

Improved solvent formulation will help mitigate efficiency, says Bullen, but there are certain engineering solutions like improvements to CO2 compression techniques that will also reduce efficiency losses. However, these are likely to be relatively small on the overall impact on efficiency.

“We’ve looked at heat recovery to improve efficiency,” explains Bullen. “We’ve looked at waste heat that’s currently thrown away to cooling water to the CO2 compressor and using that heat within the CCGT to heat boiler feed water. These all help but they won’t achieve massive changes in efficiency in themselves.

Another problem to overcome is the additional pressure drop on the flue gas. “The general consensus is that you need a flue gas blower downstream at the HRSG, otherwise you end up back pressuring the gas turbine, which would impact its performance,” Bullen says. How the CCGT and the capture plant are laid out and their locations relative to each other will have an impact on the power required for the flue gas blower, he adds.

The challenges of CCS under part-load CCGT operation

A more pressing problem concerns the steam turbine and the need to extract low-pressure stream to regenerate the amine in the reboiler under part-load operations. Foster Wheeler is currently conducting research for an unnamed client into CCS operation at part-load for CCGTs.

“There are some challenges and considerations that need to be looked regarding the steam between the outlet of the medium-pressure turbine and the inlet of the low-pressure turbine sections,” Bullen says. “Under part-load, the pressure within the steam turbine will tend to fall while you still want to maintain pressure conditions to the amine system. This is a challenge.”

The challenges of part-load, CCGT flexibility and meeting grid code requirements are not a CCS-killer, but they do present a significant problem. “There are things you could do with the CCS system so that the grid code can be met. For example, you could shut down the CO2 compressor and export to the grid the auxiliary load saved, but there is an impact on doing that because then you’re not exporting CO2 to the pipeline.

“What’s the priority? Is it exporting CO2 or is it maintaining power supply to the grid? There needs to be some understanding of the overriding requirements of the plant and then design a system to work within those stipulations. We’ve done a lot of desktop studies and some early FEED work but no-one has taken the next step of putting kit on the ground.”

How much does CCS cost?

Unofficial reports suggested Scottish Power’s Longannet project fell through at the eleventh hour because it was asking for an additional £500m to complete the project, and the UK Treasury was not willing to spend more than the original £1 billion allocated. Alstom says CCS, whether on coal or gas plants, is competitive with alternative low-carbon technologies.

Paelinck says its reference plant puts the levelized cost of electricity for a state-of-the-art 600 MW CCGT power plant commissioned in 2015, integrated with CCS and operating in baseload, at €65/MWh ($86). Without CCS, the levelized cost of electricity for the reference plant is €43 per MWh, meaning the cost of CCS adds another 50 per cent.

Alstom cannot put a price on retrofitting CCGTs with CCS. “It would be highly dependent on location at whether the plant is capture ready or not,” says Paelinck. “Given our experience of retrofitting the water-steam cycle to open-cycle gas turbines, I would expect capex costs to be 15-20 per cent higher compared to a plant designed for CCS from scratch.”

Adding 15-20 per cent on the capex will translate to 10 per cent additional overall cost, says Ladwig, or approximately €70/MWh for a retrofitted CCGT with CCS.

Advanced amine carbon capture process

Making CCS pay

Alstom calculates that the cost of saving a tonne of CO2 emitted from CCS at €75 per tonne in 2015. The current carbon price is barely €9 per tonne and Paelinck admits that the chance of the carbon price rising to this level is extremely slim.

“Unless we have dramatic changes in European policy regarding the EU ETS, a utility’s decision to build a CCS plant won’t be based on the carbon price alone for the foreseeable future,” he says. “If you want CCS to start in 2015 on the back of a carbon price you need it to be €80-€90 per tonne to trigger investment, but on cost grounds it needs to be above €75 per tonne.”

Paelinck says the carbon saving costs of wind and solar are more like €150-€200, but thanks to feed-in tariffs these technologies are being deployed. “The UK’s Electricity Market Reforms, which will convert the Renewables Obligation subsidy scheme to a feed-in tariff with contracts for difference is a good option that will kick-off CCS on a competitive basis. Our customers will then look at CCS versus wind, solar or hydro.”

Even with dedicated government subsidies, the investment scenario for CCS is tough. The increasing penetration of renewables has dented the operational hours of fossil fuel power plants and utilities wishing to invest in new plant have a headache.

“Decision-makers will, slowly but surely, realise what’s going on and realise we need a price for decarbonized electricity that includes the costs of dispatch,” says Paelinck. “What we are proposing with CCS is to augment the capex of power plant in order to decarbonize, therefore exposing those plants to even more sensitivity to the number of operating hours.

“We’re probably going to see capacity payments made for fossil fuel backup plants. I can’t see any other way for our customers to invest in new plant.”

The problems of storing CO2

Once governments and industry have cracked how to monetize carbon capture, the other crucial element of CCS – storage – needs to be fixed. There is general impression that captured carbon dioxide can be easily transported across the existing natural gas pipeline infrastructure, swapping CH4 for CO2. That could be highly dangerous due to corrosive ‘dense phase’, pressurized CO2.

The problem is that CO2 captured from power plants always contains moisture. Wet CO2 is very acidic and the potential for corrosion, leakage and even explosions is such that dedicated CO2 pipelines made from expensive corrosion-resistant steel may have to be used.

Dr. Ward Goldthorpe, who heads up the UK Crown Estate’s CCS programme, says a huge amount of technical work needs to be done for regulating CO2 with impurities, i.e. water. “The regulatory framework is essentially adapted from the US petroleum industry, but a lot of CO2 transport in the US is pure CO2. Devising standards for the CCS industry that can cope with CO2 plus impurities is still a work in progress.”

Goldthorpe says the major stumbling block for CO2 storage from power plants is the lack of a viable business model. “Unlike the enhanced oil recovery (EOR) projects in the US, we are trying to implement in one fell swoop integrated CCS projects with no associated value proposition at all. The public funding is not prepared to underwrite the awkward risk-sharing and liability issues which pop out of the integrated model.”

Paelinck agrees. “We don’t have a business model for CCS in Europe because the carbon price is too low and the opportunities for EOR are quite scarce. We have some in the North Sea but it won’t be enough to supply the big market everybody dreams of. In the US the price for EOR is $20-$40 per tonne of CO2 but that’s not enough to justify CCS with gas.”

DECC says developing CCS is an “uncertain, potentially time-consuming, costly and risky business opportunity”. That is putting it mildly. If CCS is to become a viable commercial proposition then the various technical, regulatory and financial hurdles must be overcome. Just don’t expect CCS to be ready any time soon.

British Geological Survey’s shale gas groundwater study to omit Cuadrilla’s fracking sites

Potential scenarios of methane pollution from shale. Source: Nature, September 2011.

The British Geological Survey’s (BGS) study to establish levels of methane in groundwater in the UK will not include sites ‘fracked’ by Cuadrilla Resources in Lancashire.

These sites operated by Cuadrilla, which last year claimed that a 500 square mile area around Blackpool, Preston and Southport contains enough methane to meet national gas demand for at least 50 years, are the only current fracking sites in the UK. The firm halted drilling last May, however, after the BGS concluded fracking at Cuadrilla’s Preese Hall 1 shale gas well had likely caused two small earthquakes off the Fylde coast.

According to the BGS, evidence from the USA has shown very high methane concentrations in groundwater in areas of shale gas exploitation, which has been directly related to shale gas operations. Yet there is considerable uncertainty as to the source of methane and there is no baseline data on methane concentrations in groundwater before the onset of shale gas exploitation.

Last December the BGS commenced a year-long project to establish the baseline of methane levels in groundwater in seven areas: Northern Ireland; South Wales; the East Pennines (Cleveland Basin); the Wessex and Weald Basin in Southern England; the East Midlands, the Northumberland Trough; and Lancashire.

Cuadrilla Resources’ capped gas well in Cowden, Kent

However, according to Dr. Rob Ward, head of groundwater science at the BGS, the study will not include Cuadrilla’s existing sites despite its use of fracking to determine its estimate of 200 trillion cubic feet for gas in place in the Bowland Shale.

“We are not testing those specific areas,” he told Millicent Media. ”At the moment [Cuadrilla] is not exploiting shale gas, it has only drilled exploratory wells. This is a strategic survey to build up a national baseline against which environmental impacts can be assessed and appropriate management decisions taken if large-scale exploitation goes ahead.”

At each region, the BGS will identify 20-25 monitoring sites, such as boreholes, to take samples of groundwater. Once sampled, the BGS will test for concentrations of dissolved methane.

Dr. Rob Ward, head of groundwater science at the British Geological Survey. Source: BGS

If the BGS finds elevated levels, says Dr. Ward, it will conduct a more rigorous (isotopic) analysis to determine whether the methane is biogenic, which is usually produced from organic material in peatbogs, landfill etc., or thermogenic methane, which is produced from material buried at depth like shale.

“At the 2-4 km depths I anticipate shale gas will be explored and potentially exploited in the UK the methane will be of thermogenic origin, so it would have an isotopic signature which would enable us to disassociate it from, for example, landfill gas.”

Dr. Ward said the BGS started the study in South Wales in December.  Due to scarce resources, he says, the study is “limited” and has no official budget, with funds being reallocated from other projects. Just “five or six” people are working on the study, Dr. Ward added.

The study is, however, self-funded and independent. Dr. Ward expects sampling to be completed by the end of 2012, with a report due to be published in 2013.